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#52 Jun 08 2012 at 12:27 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
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Again, does anyone actually think that over 50% of the voters in California just hate gay people?

To be fair, I'm sure a healthy percentage of them don't so much hate gay people as much as they just do whatever the GOP tells them to do and rationalize to themselves later Smiley: smile


If it was any state other than California, your argument might hold a couple of drops of water.
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#53 Jun 08 2012 at 12:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#54 Jun 08 2012 at 1:44 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Quote:
Again, does anyone actually think that over 50% of the voters in California just hate gay people?

To be fair, I'm sure a healthy percentage of them don't so much hate gay people as much as they just do whatever the GOP tells them to do and rationalize to themselves later Smiley: smile


And? I'm assuming you don't mean to say that over 50% of the voters in California are either gay haters or blindly follow whatever the GOP tells them to do.

So... There must be more to it than just that, right? So arguing that gays are being denied their marriage status because of those things can't be true, right? If that were it, and those groups are in the minority (which kinda has to be the case in California or there wouldn't have been a Democrat in the White House for the last like 80 years or so), then you are missing some key component of the issue. It's the component that makes this an issue. If it were just gay haters the issue would have been won by the folks pushing for expanding the marriage status. Even lumping in your assumed group of blind GOP followers, it still would have been won.


Doesn't it seem more constructive to look at that key component, figure out what it is and understand the whole issue rather than just fixating on the low hanging fruit? I mean, I'm sure it makes liberals feel great about themselves to constantly beat their chests and proclaim themselves to be more evolved, kind, compassionate, etc and their opponents a bunch of knuckledragging haters, but clearly the key constituency which keeps thwarting gay marriage efforts is *not* those things you guys keep harping on. If you actually wanted to expand marriage to include gay couples, I'd think you'd be looking at that group and figuring out why they're holding things up rather than just crying about all the gay haters in the world. One might even suspect that it's not really about gay marriage at all, but just using the issue as a political rallying cry. But that would just be crazy conspiracy talk!
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#55 Jun 08 2012 at 1:46 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Woooooosh


Really?
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#56 Jun 08 2012 at 1:47 PM Rating: Excellent
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I was making a joke. Not that I don't think there's some truth to it but I'm not interested in debating the point with you. I've talked about state bans recently enough that you can look it up if you care enough.

Great work typing a couple large paragraphs in response though Smiley: laugh
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#57 Jun 08 2012 at 1:48 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Woooooosh
Really?

Ummm.... Wooooosh to you then too, I guess.

Between you and BDJ, I can see why Fox's "Half Hour News Hour" was such a big hit Smiley: laugh


Edited, Jun 8th 2012 2:49pm by Jophiel
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#58 Jun 08 2012 at 2:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Quote:
Again, does anyone actually think that over 50% of the voters in California just hate gay people?

To be fair, I'm sure a healthy percentage of them don't so much hate gay people as much as they just do whatever the GOP tells them to do and rationalize to themselves later Smiley: smile

Some honestly think of homosexuality as an illness-they feel pity for teh gays, and while pity is very Christian of them, they hope you kindly understand that baby Jesus didn't mean for you to marry, so sorry.
Some think that it's pointless, the divorce rate is so high and plus there are bigger issues so quit your whining you horny gheys, and move on. Who cares.
Some like individual gheys, nothing against them, but just don't care to get off the couch enough to vote for that or any other issue. Sucks (ha!) for you, gheys.
It's not nearly as cut-and-dry as hate. People are very attached to certain stances, even if those stances involve apathy. For example, I shudder to think how KFC kills chickens, but I'll be damned if I can quit eating meat, so I just choose not to think about it.
What I'm saying is gay marriage is some people's inhumane chicken slaughter.

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#59 Jun 08 2012 at 6:14 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Woooooosh
Really?

Ummm.... Wooooosh to you then too, I guess.

Between you and BDJ, I can see why Fox's "Half Hour News Hour" was such a big hit Smiley: laugh


Edited, Jun 8th 2012 2:49pm by Jophiel


Excuse the hell out of me for not catching the one time you're making a joke about the evil Republicans, since most of the time you (or somebody else on this board) is bashing them in earnest.
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#60 Jun 08 2012 at 6:23 PM Rating: Good
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Quote:
Again, does anyone actually think that over 50% of the voters in California just hate gay people?

To be fair, I'm sure a healthy percentage of them don't so much hate gay people as much as they just do whatever the GOP tells them to do and rationalize to themselves later Smiley: smile


If it was any state other than California, your argument might hold a couple of drops of water.



You know how I know you don't know squat about California?

It's a big state. Lots of people, lots of opinions.
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#61 Jun 08 2012 at 6:34 PM Rating: Excellent
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
Excuse the hell out of me for not catching the one time you're making a joke about the evil Republicans, since most of the time you (or somebody else on this board) is bashing them in earnest.

The important thing is that you handled it gracefully.
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Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#62 Jun 08 2012 at 6:39 PM Rating: Good
There was also the issue of the Mormon church spending 20 million dollars in California to misinform the public about what Prop 8 would do. They came up with stuff like: force schools to teach kids about homosexuality in sex ed, force churches to marry homosexual couples or lose tax exempt status, and churches getting sued for promoting hate speech for speaking out against homosexuality. The first two at least, were untrue. The third had absolutely nothing to do with the Prop 8 to begin with, and has everything to do with hate speech laws.
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#63 Jun 11 2012 at 7:27 AM Rating: Good
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
Excuse the hell out of me for not catching the one time you're making a joke about the evil Republicans, since most of the time you (or somebody else on this board) is bashing them in earnest.
Then your sense of humor detector is on the fritz.
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#64 Jun 11 2012 at 7:51 AM Rating: Good
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PigtailsOfDoom wrote:
There was also the issue of the Mormon church spending 20 million dollars in California to misinform the public about what Prop 8 would do. They came up with stuff like: force schools to teach kids about homosexuality in sex ed, force churches to marry homosexual couples or lose tax exempt status, and churches getting sued for promoting hate speech for speaking out against homosexuality. The first two at least, were untrue. The third had absolutely nothing to do with the Prop 8 to begin with, and has everything to do with hate speech laws.

Hate speech laws: the good kind of censorship! Smiley: oyvey
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#65 Jun 11 2012 at 4:44 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
Bigdaddyjug wrote:
Excuse the hell out of me for not catching the one time you're making a joke about the evil Republicans, since most of the time you (or somebody else on this board) is bashing them in earnest.

Then your sense of humor detector is on the fritz.


Or someone just claims he was joking after the fact. I'm curious, since you have a perfectly functioning humor detector, if you could tell me which of these is a joke and which isn't:


Jophiel wrote:
Demea wrote:
Edit: and by that, I don't mean this case specifically, but rather the fight for gay marriage in general throughout the country, state by state.

I think it will. I showed the aggregate polling over the last 10-15 years in a previous thread and we've just hit parity for support versus opposition whereas you don't have to go far back to find 10 or 20 point spreads against it. It will take time for state legislatures to roll over enough to overturn laws or re-amend their constitutions and some states will of course hold out much longer than others (such as the N. Carolina vote). But the trend certainly seems to be in favor of SSM and I think eventually you'll even have GOP controlled legislatures allowing it.

One thing I didn't expect is that you're seeing a lot more acceptance of SSM since Obama came out openly in favor of it. Assuming these new numbers are legitimate, that can have a real impact going forward as African-Americans were one of the bastions of support anti-SSM advocates depended on (again, see N. Carolina and California).


Sure seems to be serious when talking about polling data.

Bigdaddyjug wrote:
I would wager that a lot of people who vote Republican don't personally have an issue with SSM, and would answer either in favor of or not opposed to SSM when asked for a poll. The people they elect aren't going to pass any proposals putting an SSM initiative on the ballot, though.


Jophiel wrote:
That's because the people they elect go through a primary process that favors those who are against SSM because most Republicans (at least Republican primary voters) DO care. The fewer who care, the less often it'll matter in the primary process and the more people favorably inclined will take office.


Sure seems to be serious when speaking about legislatures opposing SSM.

Jophiel wrote:
Bigdaddyjug wrote:
The vocal minority that is strongly against SSM isn't shrinking in numbers, it's just shrinking in percentage

You're aware of how we determine who wins an election, right?


Sure seems to be serious when talking about people voting here too.

Jophiel wrote:
Heh... I actually "get" what he's trying to say but he's missing the point. The more marginalized the strident anti-SSM vote is, the less it'll matter. Eventually you'll have politicians who are pro-SSM or just don't care but who are better qualified than whatever homophobe is running on the anti-SSM ticket and they will win. Won't happen today or tomorrow but I'm sure that's the direction we're headed. How long it takes will depend on how it takes for some people to stop living in terror of teh gheyz.


Seems to be serious here also.

Jophiel wrote:
Quote:
Again, does anyone actually think that over 50% of the voters in California just hate gay people?

To be fair, I'm sure a healthy percentage of them don't so much hate gay people as much as they just do whatever the GOP tells them to do and rationalize to themselves later Smiley: smile


Ah... But this one is a joke, right? Please tell me you're kidding. If it's a joke, it's a pretty lame one. And what's with being dead serious when talking about polling numbers on gay marriage, but suddenly shifting to a joke when the issue of the people actually voting comes up? Isn't the latter more important? He seemed to be serious when talking about how people are elected, so why joke when someone talks about how people vote directly for issues on the ballot? Why is one important, but the other not?

Seems like he switched to joking when he realized that he didn't have an actual real response. Which is funny given how seriously he took the issue right up to that point.
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#66 Jun 11 2012 at 4:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Or someone just claims he was joking after the fact. I'm curious, since you have a perfectly functioning humor detector, if you could tell me which of these is a joke and which isn't:
Well, the lengths you're going to cry about it is certainly not that funny.
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#67 Jun 11 2012 at 5:06 PM Rating: Good
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
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#68 Jun 11 2012 at 5:07 PM Rating: Decent
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How about we talk about the lengths some people will go to avoid acknowledging a fact that disputes their position? That's some serious denial going on there. The fact is that all the polling aside, every single time "the people" have voted on extending marriage benefits to gay couples, they have rejected it. What's so strange is that despite this, people like Joph will confidently post about polls showing that the majority favors that very change.


Clearly, they don't. At least not when and where it really matters.
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#69 Jun 11 2012 at 5:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
How about we talk about the lengths some people will go to avoid acknowledging a fact that disputes their position?
It is your field of expertise.
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#70 Jun 11 2012 at 5:15 PM Rating: Excellent
Yes, a majority group voting on the rights of a minority group has always worked soooo well.
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#71 Jun 11 2012 at 5:32 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
I was making a joke. Not that I don't think there's some truth to it but I'm not interested in debating the point with you. I've talked about state bans recently enough that you can look it up if you care enough.

Great work typing a couple large paragraphs in response though Smiley: laugh

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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#72 Jun 11 2012 at 5:59 PM Rating: Good
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The fact is that all the polling aside, every single time "the people" have voted on extending marriage benefits to gay couples, they have rejected it.


True. Fortunately, your idiot state has done a great job of making the obvious case that what "the people" vote for means @#%^ all.
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#73 Jun 11 2012 at 6:29 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
I was making a joke. Not that I don't think there's some truth to it but I'm not interested in debating the point with you. I've talked about state bans recently enough that you can look it up if you care enough.

Great work typing a couple large paragraphs in response though Smiley: laugh



Jophiel wrote:
You're aware of how we determine who wins an election what ballot initiatives succeed, right?



I'll give you a hint: It's not based on media polls. You made this point Joph. Yet your own logic ignores it. Votes matter, not polls.


And Smash? The degree to which your logic works applies double for opinion polls. If people voting on election day means nothing, then the polls Joph keeps placing such weight on mean even less. I didn't think I needed to spell this out for you guys, but there you have it. I don't have an issue with someone insisting that the votes are rigged, or voters manipulated, or whatever. But the same damn person should not then insist that the results of an opinion poll must be true. Because that's just stupid as all hell. Right?
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#74 Jun 11 2012 at 6:40 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
How about we talk about the lengths some people will go to avoid acknowledging a fact that disputes their position? That's some serious denial going on there. The fact is that all the polling aside, every single time "the people" have voted on extending marriage benefits to gay couples, they have rejected it. What's so strange is that despite this, people like Joph will confidently post about polls showing that the majority favors that very change.


Clearly, they don't. At least not when and where it really matters.


You do realize that the polls are recent right? Like within the last six months or so. We've had marriage initiatives making the rounds for close to ten years now.

Aside from that, I take issue with the way you keep phrasing this. You keep saying "voting on extending marriage benefits." That hasn't been the way the measures have been phrased. There's a difference between extending marriage benefits, and changing your state constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman only, which is what HAS been happening.
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#75 Jun 12 2012 at 7:19 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
I don't have an issue with someone insisting that the votes are rigged, or voters manipulated, or whatever.
I would imagine not, as you're usually the one insisting voters are being manipulated.
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#76 Jun 12 2012 at 8:23 AM Rating: Excellent
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I suppose I'd feel worse if this hadn't all been addressed before. Horses and water, I guess.

Edited, Jun 12th 2012 9:23am by Jophiel
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#77 Jun 12 2012 at 4:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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#78 Jun 12 2012 at 7:02 PM Rating: Default
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PigtailsOfDoom wrote:
gbaji wrote:
How about we talk about the lengths some people will go to avoid acknowledging a fact that disputes their position? That's some serious denial going on there. The fact is that all the polling aside, every single time "the people" have voted on extending marriage benefits to gay couples, they have rejected it. What's so strange is that despite this, people like Joph will confidently post about polls showing that the majority favors that very change.


Clearly, they don't. At least not when and where it really matters.


You do realize that the polls are recent right?


So was the 60% vote in NC on this issue. What's the point?

Quote:
Like within the last six months or so. We've had marriage initiatives making the rounds for close to ten years now.


And? So what we're seeing is that while the way people actually vote on the issue when it's on the ballot hasn't changed much (or at all) over that 10 years, the way people respond to polls has. Which would seem to support my point about a disconnect between what the polls are asking and what the actual legal issues people are voting on are about. I'd even go so far as to argue that this is deliberately done so that people can make exactly the kind of point Joph (and others) make about how somehow those who vote against gay marriage must be gay-haters, or blind followers, etc.

I think the simpler and more likely explanation is that when we ask the question in a poll, we're not really asking the same question people ask themselves when they vote. The alternative, as I explained when I started this particular sub-thread, is that over 50% of voters in every single state that has held such a vote are gay-haters and/or blind GOP followers. Since that's clearly not true, it should be the first clue to look for another explanation. And while that explanation may not be as rhetorically satisfying, it's more likely to be The Truth(tm). Yay logic!

Quote:
Aside from that, I take issue with the way you keep phrasing this. You keep saying "voting on extending marriage benefits." That hasn't been the way the measures have been phrased. There's a difference between extending marriage benefits, and changing your state constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman only, which is what HAS been happening.


Sure. Defined for the purpose of state laws. Um... Which means that it affects the way the state interacts with those couples legally. Like with regard to benefits and whatnot. Give voters a bit of credit for understanding what such a legal change actually means. It's not like there's a marriage police running around arresting anyone who refers to themselves as married, but doesn't meet the legal requirements. It only means that the state can't consider them married.

It's strange that you'd make such a point about semantics though given that the polling questions are much much much farther off. Asking "do you support the right of same sex couples to marry", isn't asking remotely whether or not the state can consider them married. Again though, you bump into the way different people view rights. Most conservatives don't view a right as being contingent on obtaining a legal status. The "right to marry" has absolutely nothing to do with whether there exists a legal status by the same name, and whether or not the state includes my name on a list somewhere that grants me some set of benefits.

The reason the polling doesn't match the voting is exactly because they are about different things. The list of people who will answer yes to that question (including me btw), includes people who believe that everyone should have a "right" to marry, but that gay marriages and straight marriages can or even should be served with different legal statuses. So if your state has domestic partnerships or civil unions, you might answer yes to the question, but oppose simply expanding the legal requirements for marriage to include same sex couples when it comes to a vote. Similarly, some of us believe that gay couples already have the "right" to marry regardless of whether a legal status exists. Those people will poll with a "yes" answer but are almost certainly going to vote against the expansion.


It's not some great mystery why those numbers don't match. But I suppose some people just can't resist making hay out of it. Ask the correct polling questions, and you'll get very very different answers. But, as I suggested before, those who conduct the polls don't want accurate information about how people view the legal issue at hand. They want to promote the assumption that the public is moving in a given direction on the issue and anyone who opposes it is wrong-headed or something. So they contrive polling questions to ensure that the number of answers appearing to support gay marriage is as high as possible. And some people fail to see that this is what's going on and fall for it, I guess. Sadly, some of them even post on this forum! Smiley: frown
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#79 Jun 12 2012 at 9:55 PM Rating: Good
Sure, I get that the way a poll question is phrased is going to impact the answers. As far as the poll in NC goes... it's one state. I was referring to changing opinions across the country as a whole. Those are the polls that show that opinion is starting to swing towards legalizing gay marriage.
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#80 Jun 13 2012 at 8:05 AM Rating: Decent
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PigtailsOfDoom wrote:
Sure, I get that the way a poll question is phrased is going to impact the answers. As far as the poll in NC goes... it's one state. I was referring to changing opinions across the country as a whole. Those are the polls that show that opinion is starting to swing towards legalizing gay marriage.


Either you didn't read his post, or you're just wilfully disregarding it because it's Gbaji. The argument is that the polls don't matter when every government referendum has come back against recognizing SSM. And these referendums have been going on for 10 years and the most recent one wasn't even a close vote. I'm also not certain that public opinion polls are reflecting an accurate slice of Americans. If there is a poll asked on cnn.com or msnbc.com, do you think more liberals are going to respond to it or more conservatives? The same holds true for polls asked on foxnews.com or any other conservative website.

If you were to ask 100 people "Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to get married?" and "Do you think state goverments should be forced to extend marriage benefits to same-sex couples, thereby costing themselves more money?", which question do you think is going to get more yes answers?

That is the difference between public opinion polls and referendum votes.
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#81 Jun 13 2012 at 9:10 AM Rating: Excellent
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The argument is that the polls don't matter when every government referendum has come back against recognizing SSM. And these referendums have been going on for 10 years and the most recent one wasn't even a close vote.

Except those results largely matched the opinion polls at that time. As recently as 2008, when California Prop 8 passed by five points, national polls showed people against SSM by 14 points. The argument you and Gbaji are making is essentially "When the polls showed people against SSM by 10+ points, states voted against it so those polls today saying people for it are in a slight majority are all wrong because why did they vote against years ago?" North Carolina wasn't surprising given the demographics but I'd be more surprised to see both initiatives in Maine & Maryland this year fail.

Even funnier is the notion that all those people against it are opposed due to some libertarian ideal. I mean, I can see people changing their opinions over time because they decide that maybe gays aren't evil and and aren't going to destroy marriage and religion but, going by Gbaji, I should assume that all these people just shed their views on taxes and government benefits instead Smiley: laugh

Quote:
I'm also not certain that public opinion polls are reflecting an accurate slice of Americans. If there is a poll asked on cnn.com or msnbc.com, do you think more liberals are going to respond to it or more conservatives? The same holds true for polls asked on foxnews.com or any other conservative website.

I don't know of any reputable poll aggregator who accepts online polls as data and your second question example is practically a push-poll.

Edited, Jun 13th 2012 10:13am by Jophiel
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#82 Jun 13 2012 at 9:26 AM Rating: Decent
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I realize the second question isn't how the public referendums are worded, but you're delusional if you don't think groups with strong anti-SSM sentiments aren't getting out there and telling people that that is what approving SSM is going to lead to (among other things).

Also, if the referendums have pretty much matched the opinion polls historically, how do you account for the recent vote in North Carolina? According to you, that vote should have been much closer, or maybe even gone in favor of SSM, because all of the recent opinion polls are coming back with results in favor of SSM.
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#83 Jun 13 2012 at 9:37 AM Rating: Excellent
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
I realize the second question isn't how the public referendums are worded

That's not what I said. I said phrasing a question like you wanted for polling purposes would be push-polling.

Quote:
According to you, that vote should have been much closer, or maybe even gone in favor of SSM, because all of the recent opinion polls are coming back with results in favor of SSM.

That's not "According to me" since I already answered this: N. Carolina isn't representative of the nation at large any more than CA was when they voted against it by 5 points while national polling showed -14. N. Carolina is a traditionally red state and its "blue" demographic has a significant number of African Americans who have polled against SSM. I'd assume national polling would need to be more like +15 before crossing the hurdle of states with broad demographics that unfavorable.

Edited, Jun 13th 2012 10:39am by Jophiel
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#84 Jun 13 2012 at 9:38 AM Rating: Good
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
you're delusional if you don't think groups with strong anti-SSM sentiments aren't getting out there and telling people that that is what approving SSM is going to lead to (among other things).
Such rational things such as The Rapture, people marrying toasters, and Nazi levels of indoctrination.
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#85 Jun 13 2012 at 9:46 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Bigdaddyjug wrote:
I realize the second question isn't how the public referendums are worded

That's not what I said. I said phrasing a question like you wanted for polling purposes would be push-polling.


I understand. But I think we can agree that a good percentage of Americans don't realize everything that would come along with legalizing SSM. So, in my opinion, just asking "Are you in favor of SSM?" is dishonest polling.
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#86 Jun 13 2012 at 9:54 AM Rating: Excellent
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It's not dishonest. The question is: Are you for this? Whether or not the person is for it out of ignorance or malice or whatever doesn't change the fact that they are for (or against) it. That's what you want to know on the surface -- how many are for or against it.

You can get into more depth down the line (Would you say you are against it due to X or Y or neither?) but anyone reputable will start by asking the most basic question.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#87 Jun 13 2012 at 10:34 AM Rating: Decent
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A poll that asks someone if they are for or against something without giving them even a simplified cost/benefit analysis is like asking people to do a taste test without letting them try the food. I feel this is especially true when the subject is SSM and, in my opinion, a majority of people don't know what the cost/benefits are.
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#88 Jun 13 2012 at 11:00 AM Rating: Excellent
Not really, the purpose of the poll is to get an idea of what they think now, not to influence the decision at all. As such, you really can't give them any information. If someone thinks A for whatever reasons, that doesn't change the fact that they think A.
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#89 Jun 13 2012 at 11:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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Sir Xsarus wrote:
Not really, the purpose of the poll is to get an idea of what they think now, not to influence the decision at all. As such, you really can't give them any information.

They'll sometimes do so after the initial question. Like:
Question #1: Do you plan to vote for Proposition 4, amending the state constitution to prohibit marriage between dogs? (yes/no/unsure)

Question #2: Proposition 4 also includes coyotes, wolves, jackals and fox in its definition of dogs. Does this change your opinion on Proposition 4? (yes/no/unsure)


...but the expanded information comes after the first question and should be as neutral as possible. I assume you knew this, but I figured someone would point to a poll where this happens and say "Ah HA!"
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#90 Jun 13 2012 at 12:37 PM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
Bigdaddyjug wrote:
The argument is that the polls don't matter when every government referendum has come back against recognizing SSM. And these referendums have been going on for 10 years and the most recent one wasn't even a close vote.

Except those results largely matched the opinion polls at that time. As recently as 2008, when California Prop 8 passed by five points, national polls showed people against SSM by 14 points. The argument you and Gbaji are making is essentially "When the polls showed people against SSM by 10+ points, states voted against it so those polls today saying people for it are in a slight majority are all wrong because why did they vote against years ago?" North Carolina wasn't surprising given the demographics but I'd be more surprised to see both initiatives in Maine & Maryland this year fail.

Even funnier is the notion that all those people against it are opposed due to some libertarian ideal. I mean, I can see people changing their opinions over time because they decide that maybe gays aren't evil and and aren't going to destroy marriage and religion but, going by Gbaji, I should assume that all these people just shed their views on taxes and government benefits instead Smiley: laugh


What Joph said. I'll admit, when I read gbaji's post I got bored quickly and skimmed over most of it, because of his tendency to go on and on. Hence my short, simplified response.

NC voted against it because it's mostly a red state, and this one state voting to alter its constitution does not represent the country overall. The polls have been asking people from all over the country, therefore, they're a more accurate representation of how the country as a whole, thinks about SSM. I really don't know much about Maryland, but I do know that Maine is mostly a blue state, so I'd agree with Joph in saying that I'd be surprised to see them vote against SSM. Hell, I'm fairly confident that Oregon would vote for it as well, and when we voted on it back in 2004, it was a 35/65 split FOR redefining marriage as man and woman only.
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#91 Jun 13 2012 at 12:52 PM Rating: Good
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Maryland's a traditionally blue state with a fairly high African-American population. AA opinions towards SSM in polling have swung fairly dramatically since Obama openly declared for it but whether that's legitimate or not hasn't been tested. Even a more moderate shift would make a difference though.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#92 Jun 13 2012 at 1:26 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Maryland's a traditionally blue state with a fairly high African-American population. AA opinions towards SSM in polling have swung fairly dramatically since Obama openly declared for it but whether that's legitimate or not hasn't been tested. Even a more moderate shift would make a difference though.


Eh, I think Jay-Z probably had more of an impact.

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#93 Jun 13 2012 at 1:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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I wouldn't doubt it. I'm skeptical of how broad the swing was but I assume there was some positive movement.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#94 Jun 13 2012 at 1:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
I wouldn't doubt it. I'm skeptical of how broad the swing was but I assume there was some positive movement.


yeah, I'm sure the VOCAL support increased - but how well that translates into an actual philosophical, vote-impacting shift...well, I'm not so sure there. I would imagine it made a fair bit of difference with youth, but possibly not youth old enough to vote. It bodes well for the future though, as does just the general trending across the country. While it's easy to get disenchanted, a look at the actual history and the speed with which much of the country is shifting toward favoring equality shows pretty fast progress. These things take time - sometimes you have to wait for people to die and others to be old enough to vote. There was a right time for Loving and there's a right time for this as well...we're just not *quite* there yet...but close!

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#95 Jun 13 2012 at 2:54 PM Rating: Decent
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Sir Xsarus wrote:
Not really, the purpose of the poll is to get an idea of what they think now, not to influence the decision at all. As such, you really can't give them any information. If someone thinks A for whatever reasons, that doesn't change the fact that they think A.


Again though, if the poll is asking a different question than a voter will ask themselves when voting, we should not be surprised when the vote results don't match the polling results. You guys are still proceeding as though there's some sort of direct relationship between the polls and the votes, but that's exactly the assumption I'm challenging here. Drop that assumption and you have nothing. Two unrelated things that happen to touch on the same broad issue. Don't put more weight into it than that.
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#96 Jun 13 2012 at 3:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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Smiley: facepalm
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Senator Toomey (R-PA) wrote:
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#98 Jun 14 2012 at 11:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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So I've never been polled myself on whether or not I support SSM, but I would assume that the question is "Do you support SSM?" with some follow-ups depending on what your answer to that first question is.

Wouldn't it make more sense to ask "Would you vote in favor of legalizing SSM?" if you wanted to get the answer you're really looking for?
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#99 Jun 14 2012 at 11:21 AM Rating: Excellent
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If you care that much, go look up some old polls and see how the questions were phrased.
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In the end it didn't pass because we're so politicized. There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it
#100 Jun 14 2012 at 11:24 AM Rating: Good
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
So I've never been polled myself on whether or not I support SSM, but I would assume that the question is "Do you support SSM?" with some follow-ups depending on what your answer to that first question is.
Why would you assume that if you've not seen the question?

Professional pollsters are typically well-trained to write questions to best get the information that their client wants.

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#101 Jun 14 2012 at 7:37 PM Rating: Default
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
So I've never been polled myself on whether or not I support SSM, but I would assume that the question is "Do you support SSM?" with some follow-ups depending on what your answer to that first question is.

Wouldn't it make more sense to ask "Would you vote in favor of legalizing SSM?" if you wanted to get the answer you're really looking for?


It's a little trickier than that. The most commonly quoted poll is the Gallup poll, which asks this question:

"Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?"

Sure seems reasonable, but it's interesting what happens when you compare the differences between polls phrased as "should gay/same-sex couples <some wording about gaining the right to marry or legal recognition of their marriages>" versus polls phrased "should marriage be defined as <some comparison between man-and-woman or allowing same sex couples>". People really do answer questions which appear to be objectively identical (or at least appear to be asking the same thing about the same issue) differently based purely on how they are phrased. We tend to be suckers for a sad story, and polls tend to reflect this. Ask people if they think that we should do everything we can to help underprivileged kids receive the best education possible and you'll get nearly 100% yes answers. Ask the same people to vote on a specific education program and you'll get a lot more opposition.


When we move from the broad moral questions "Should homosexuals enjoy the same rights as heterosexuals" (which everyone presumably would answer yes) to the more specific objective choices about actions to take, we tend to shift quite a bit. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward. Something that's easy to say in principle is not so clear when you get to specifics. Sure I want kids to have the best education possible, but is this particular program the best way to do it? Is it the best use of limited funds? Ask me a question without realistic limits and I can easily afford to give the best moral answer to the question. Ask it again in a more limited or restricted situation and the answer will be very different.

We practice moral relativity all the time. Is it wrong to steal? Of course. But what if your child is starving and that can of soup will save his life? Different answer, right? Is it wrong to break into someone's home? Absolutely. But what if we just crashed our car out front, and there's a phone in the house (assume you don't have a cell phone on you). Do you smash the window of someone's house while they're away to use their phone to save a life? Of course you do. Property can be replaced. A life can't.

The issue with many (most?) polls is that they tend to ask the more abstract principled questions. But when you go and vote on a law, you are voting on that particular bit of text that represents a change to the law which will affect you and everyone around you. That's about as specific as it gets. And that's why it's not uncommon to see differences between polls and vote results on issues.
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