Master Shojindo wrote:
WoW won't be killed. It will die gently in the night of natural causes at a ripe old age.
This. In some ways, WoW's been shifting markets for the past two years. It's actively trying to appeal to the kinds of people who won't be looking to upgrade to a new MMO. It's left a vacuum for the more avid MMO gamers (casual and hardcore), but that population is DEFINITELY not large enough to "kill" WoW.
You beat WoW by attracting a large enough player base that allows for launch success combined with steady growth (often into casual markets). These players will often be siphoned off WoW, but many will have never played an MMO. Blizzard is going to be making a ton of money on WoW for the foreseeable future. Even if they moved it to a F2P model, they'd still make wild profits.
Unless we're cutting out the Asian market entirely from the comparison, no MMO is going to have a higher pop than WoW for a while.